Economic bulletin

We are ambitious for the economy of Staffordshire, our businesses, and people. The impacts of global events continue to be felt on the local, national, and global economies and cannot be ignored. However, the county council, Government, and our partners, will continue to support Staffordshire’s residents and businesses through challenging times, ensuring we are well-placed to deliver a more resilient, more dynamic and more productive local economy.

Our ambitious Economic Strategy is our roadmap to delivering our ambitions for the Staffordshire economy, where our existing business are helped to grow, new businesses are established and thrive, our residents have the skills needed to access the jobs of the future and our towns across the county are supported to be places we can all be proud of.

An Employment and Skills Strategy 2023-2030 has been developed to support this and can be used to guide future employment and skills work programmes, to enable effective communication of Staffordshire’s shared employment and skills goals, and to inform the development of the Local Skills Improvement Plan (LSIP) for Stoke-on-Trent and Staffordshire.

A summary brochure of the Staffordshire Employment and Skills Strategy 2023-2030 has also been produced.

To effectively achieve our priorities and deliver our long-term vision for our economy we need robust ongoing analysis and evidence of the latest economic picture, ensuring that we are aware of any challenges that may arise. The monthly Economic Bulletin forms a key part of our live evidence base.

Latest edition

Latest Edition 53 (1.7 MB)

Welcome to the latest edition of the Staffordshire & Stoke-on-Trent Economic Bulletin produced by our Economy, Skills and Insight Teams, which provides the timeliest analysis of official Government data, national intelligence and local insights on the state of the local economy.

Alongside information on the Claimant Count and Job Vacancies that will be a part of every Bulletin, this month’s issue also provides more detailed youth claimant count analysis and updated ward level analysis of the claimant count to help identify areas which are being impacted the hardest by unemployment and a reliance on work-related benefits across Staffordshire & Stoke-on-Trent and where there may be a greater need for support. We also provide analysis of the latest business insolvency data to further understand how businesses are faring during the current economic climate.

We hope you find the Bulletin useful and welcome your comments and suggestions on further information you would like to see included in future editions. If you do have any feedback please send your comments to Darren Farmer, Economy & Skills Analyst at darren.farmer@staffordshire.gov.uk.

Stay Safe,

Darryl Eyers

Director for Economy, Infrastructure and Skills, Staffordshire County Council

Key messages from edition 53

Local Picture

This month we have seen a small decrease in the Claimant Count which is welcome news. However, there are still challenging economic conditions and changes by the Department of Work and Pensions introduced in May are expected to increase the claimant count nationwide.
Job vacancies have continued to decline, and new job postings in Staffordshire are now below pre-pandemic levels. In comparison, job vacancies in the region and nationally have declined at a higher rate than pre-pandemic levels. However, there continue to be job opportunities across Staffordshire for those that unfortunately find themselves out of work.
We will continue to support our residents into work and ensure that Staffordshire has the strong workforce it needs to grow the economy.
We also continue to support local businesses that face ongoing challenging conditions due to a wide range of factors including high interest rates and energy prices, increased commodity costs, increasing wage levels and lower consumer demand.
Looking at the local data in more detail, following increases in the claimant count since before the start of the year, the number of work-related benefit claimants in Staffordshire decreased by 85 claimants this month to a total of 15,535 claimants. It is of note that this month Staffordshire saw a decrease whereas the West Midlands and England both saw increases.
The claimant rate for Staffordshire remained unchanged at 2.9% of the working age population. Staffordshire continues to have one of the lowest rates in the West Midlands, far lower than the average for the region 5.6% which remained unchanged, and lower than the average for England 4.3% which increased from 4.2% this month.
Turning to job vacancies, Staffordshire saw an 8% decrease in the number of available job vacancies between November and December to a total of 10,900. This is lower than the number of work-related benefit claimants. Stoke-on-Trent saw a 4% decrease in job vacancies to a total of 4,700 which is significantly lower than the number of claimants. Across the region in the last month there was a 7% decrease, and nationally there was a 6% decrease in the number of job vacancies.
Considering the top 20 job vacancy occupations in Staffordshire and Stoke-on-Trent, demand for roles in social care continue to remain high with ‘Care Workers and Home Carers’ being the most in demand occupations. The following occupations ‘Sales Related,’ ‘Cleaners & Domestics’ and ‘Teaching Assistants’ also have strong demand.
There continue to be reports of labour and skills shortages with not enough skilled workers to fill the vacant jobs.This has the potential to slow down economic growth and limit business survival unless the labour shortage and skills gap is quickly and effectively addressed. Clearly employment support organisations, skills providers and the Government’s Plan for Jobs including the Restart schemes and new Skills Bootcamps have a vital role in upskilling and reskilling jobseekers into areas of demand and preventing them becoming long-term unemployed. Government and business sectors have a key role in ensuring that jobs in areas of demand are attracting workers with good pay and terms and conditions to help prevent labour shortages.
It is clear there continues to be a high number of jobs available in the local economy and the need now is to ensure that there is a strong local labour pool with skilled workers able to fill these roles to support business recovery/survival and improve prosperity through better pay. The national and local support which is in place to support those that have been unfortunate enough to lose their jobs is vital in both reskilling and upskilling as well as enabling potential applicants to access the opportunities available. Encouraging those that have become economically inactive since COVID will further help to address labour shortages and skills gaps.
Staffordshire County Council’s new Job Brokerage Service is designed to do exactly this by matching local people, employers, and training providers to fill jobs and provide people with the jobs and careers they need.
There are clear emerging opportunities for job creation in digital (including online retail and e-commerce) and the green economy (including retrofitting homes to improve energy efficiency, electric cars e.g., Jaguar Land Rover, renewables, and hydrogen e.g., JCB).
We will also look to build on our existing strengths including engineering and advanced manufacturing through the adoption of AI, Automation and Machine Learning, construction to achieve Government house building targets and build major new infrastructure projects such as the West Midlands Freight Interchange which will create 8,500 new jobs. Also advanced logistics with ecommerce creating continued demand and the recent announcement by Pets At Home in Stafford creating over 750 new jobs.

Local Initiatives

Staffordshire and Stoke-on-Trent businesses that have been turned down by other lenders can now apply to the Staffordshire and Stoke-on-Trent Business Loan Fund, supporting businesses to grow through affordable, unsecured loans from £10,000 to £50,000.
Applications for Staffordshire Means Back to Business Scheme business loans and grants remain open to small businesses in Staffordshire, including the Get Started and Grow Scheme.
Alongside this there is support available through the Growth Hub and we have our start-up schemes and the Staffordshire Jobs and Careers Service.
The Staffordshire Business and Enterprise Network (SBEN) continues to support local businesses with the transition to Net Zero.
To ensure residents have access to the support needed to find employment there are several employment and skills programmes which they can access including the Connect to Work and skills bootcamps.
Stoke-On-Trent & Staffordshire Growth Hub have partnered with the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) to offer free 1-2-1 virtual business support sessions.
The Staffordshire County Council Workplace Health Service, working with public health and local health experts, offers businesses a comprehensive and funded package of online and in-person support.
Businesses across Staffordshire have the opportunity to build confidence and skill-up their staff for free with the government's Multiply scheme.
Businesses in Staffordshire can now apply for free energy assessments through the Green Solutions scheme.
A pioneering business event in Stoke-on-Trent is set to be one of the biggest funding opportunities ever hosted in the region. Staffordshire Funding Festival 2025 will bring together funding providers and support organisations, offering businesses of all sizes and sectors an opportunity to secure a funding boost.

National Context

The Prime Minster has pledged to meet six explicit “milestones”, including to raise living standards, cut NHS waiting lists and build 1.5 million new homes.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has pledged to go “further and faster” to improve economic growth after market turbulence saw the cost of servicing UK debt rise.
Following the publication of the English Devolution White Paper, the Deputy Prime Minister, Angela Rayner has said she wants every region of England to get a mayor, as she outlined plans for a reorganisation of local government.
Chancellor has also announced that the Spending Review will be held on June 11 and will set resource or day-to-day departmental budgets until 2028/29 and capital departmental budgets until 2029/30.

Cost of Living

UK inflation unexpectedly dipped to 2.5 per cent in December for the first time in three months, as hotel prices fell and tobacco costs eased.
The Bank of England has kept interest rates on hold at 4.75 per cent as it warned UK growth is on the brink of stagnation amid the fallout from Rachel Reeves’s budget and threat of Donald Trump reigniting global trade wars.
Real earnings continue to rise at a faster pace. Annual growth in employees' average earnings for both regular (excluding bonuses) and total earnings (including bonuses) in Great Britain was 5.6% in September to November 2024. Annual growth in real terms, adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH), was 2.5% for regular pay and 2.4% for total pay in September to November 2024.

Economy

The International Monetary Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook report indicates that Britain’s gross domestic product (GDP) is on track to grow by 1.6 per cent in 2025, up on the 1.5 per cent predicted last October.
Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.1% in November 2024 largely because of a growth in services, the first growth in three months.
Real GDP is estimated to have shown no growth in the three months to November 2024, compared with the three months to August 2024.

Business Conditions

It remains evident that many businesses struggling due to a wide range of factors including high interest rates and energy prices, increased commodity costs, wage pressures, supply-chain constraints, lower consumer confidence and some labour market challenges. There is also evidence of business concerns regarding higher taxes and wage levels following the announcements in the recent Budget.
The latest results from Wave 124 of the Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS), which was live from 6^th to 19^th January 2025 suggest that business conditions continue to remain challenging.
Around 3 in 10 (30%) trading businesses reported that their turnover had decreased in December 2024 compared with the previous calendar month, up 5 percentage points from the proportion reported for November 2024, and the highest proportion reported since December 2022; in contrast, 14% reported their turnover was higher, broadly stable from last month.
Around 1 in 5 (20%) trading businesses reported that they expect their turnover to decrease in February 2025, down 5 percentage points from expectations for January 2025; conversely, 17% reported that they expect their turnover to increase in February 2025, up 4 percentage points over the same period.
The latest business insolvencies data shows that in December 2024 there were a total of 1,778 company insolvencies in England and Wales, 12% lower than the number registered in the previous year (2,012 in December 2023), and 19% higher than the number registered three years previously: 1,490 in December 2021). The main concern around company and individual insolvencies are associated issues such as mental health and homelessness.

Labour Market

In summary, this month’s labour market figures show the labour market is cooling and recruitment challenges have continued to ease.
Positively, economic inactivity is down on the last quarter, but employment is also down, and unemployment is up.
This would indicate that more people are searching for work at a time when job vacancies continue to decline, however vacancies remain above pre-pandemic levels so there are jobs available if people have the right skills and interests.
Estimates for payrolled employees in the UK decreased by 32,000 (0.1%) between October and November 2024 but rose by 95,000 (0.3%) between November 2023 and November 2024. The early estimate of payrolled employees for December 2024 decreased by 47,000 (0.2%) on the month and decreased by 8,000 (0.0%) on the year to 30.3 million.
The UK employment rate for people aged 16 to 64 years was estimated at 74.8% in September to November 2024. This is largely unchanged on a year ago, but down in the latest quarter.
The UK unemployment rate for people aged 16 years and over was estimated at 4.4% in September to November 2024. This is above estimates of a year ago, and up in the latest quarter.
The UK economic inactivity rate for people aged 16 to 64 years was estimated at 21.6% September to November 2024. This is below estimates of a year ago, and down in the latest quarter.
The UK Claimant Count for December 2024 increased slightly on the month and is up on the year, at 1.744 million.
The estimated number of vacancies in the UK decreased by 24,000 on the quarter to 812,000 in October to December 2024. Vacancies decreased on the quarter for the 30th consecutive period but are still above pre-pandemic levels.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the Prime Minster has pledged to meet six explicit “milestones”, including to raise living standards, cut NHS waiting lists and build 1.5 million new homes, while the Chancellor has pledged to go “further and faster” to improve economic growth. The Deputy Prime Minister wants every region of England to get a mayor, as outlined in the English Devolution White Paper. While it has been announced that the Spending Review will be held on June 11.
Positively, UK inflation reduced in December but remains above the Bank’s target and therefore interest rates have been held. It is also good news that real earnings continue to rise at a faster pace, meaning more money in workers pockets and helping to ease cost-of-living pressures.
This year the UK is expected to see stronger growth than other European countries, following the small growth seen in November last year.
It is clear that for many businesses conditions remain challenging due to a wide range of factors impacting turnover, while the Budget has increased concerns regarding taxation and payroll demands.
The labour market continues to cool, with recruitment challenges continuing to ease. We have seen further declines in economic inactivity, however we have also seen employment decline and unemployment rise with more people searching for a job at a time of declining vacancies.
We need to continue to support those still struggling with the cost-of-living, residents to transition into work and viable businesses to survive and grow.By reducing the impact on our business base, we can see faster recovery and greater economic growth to the benefit of all.
In Staffordshire we have a confident, diverse, and robust economy, demonstrated by the improvement and recovery witnessed since the last lockdown due to Covid.As the ongoing global and national socio-economic challenges persist it remains vital that local partners work together to support local businesses and residents. We continue to deliver the Staffordshire Means Business Programme which has helped hundreds of Staffordshire businesses transition to new business models including diversification, digitisation and greenification to improve their viability and sustainability.
We continue to support residents into work and help businesses address ongoing labour shortages and skills gaps to aid survival and growth. A key part of this being the recently established Staffordshire Jobs and Careers Brokerage Service which is designed to match local people, employers, and training providers to fill jobs and provide people with the jobs and careers they need.
Alongside this skills provision has an important role to play in ensuring that local residents have the skills and training needed within the local economy to support increased growth, productivity, and prosperity. Reskilling and upskilling residents from declining sectors into priority growth areas of the economy such as digital, green, advanced manufacturing, advanced logistics, construction, and health and social care where they can access higher value better paid jobs will be key.