Economic bulletin

We are ambitious for the economy of Staffordshire, our businesses, and people. The impacts of global events continue to be felt on the local, national, and global economies and cannot be ignored. However, the county council, Government, and our partners, will continue to support Staffordshire’s residents and businesses through challenging times, ensuring we are well-placed to deliver a more resilient, more dynamic and more productive local economy.

Our ambitious Economic Strategy is our roadmap to delivering our ambitions for the Staffordshire economy, where our existing business are helped to grow, new businesses are established and thrive, our residents have the skills needed to access the jobs of the future and our towns across the county are supported to be places we can all be proud of.

An Employment and Skills Strategy 2023-2030 has been developed to support this and can be used to guide future employment and skills work programmes, to enable effective communication of Staffordshire’s shared employment and skills goals, and to inform the development of the Local Skills Improvement Plan (LSIP) for Stoke-on-Trent and Staffordshire.

A summary brochure of the Staffordshire Employment and Skills Strategy 2023-2030 has also been produced.

To effectively achieve our priorities and deliver our long-term vision for our economy we need robust ongoing analysis and evidence of the latest economic picture, ensuring that we are aware of any challenges that may arise. The monthly Economic Bulletin forms a key part of our live evidence base.

Latest edition

Edition 50 (2.5 MB)

Welcome to the latest edition of the Staffordshire & Stoke-on-Trent Economic Bulletin produced by our Economy, Skills and Insight Teams, which provides the timeliest analysis of official Government data, national intelligence and local insights on the state of the local economy.

Alongside information on the Claimant Count and Job Vacancies that will be a part of every Bulletin, this month’s issue also provides more detailed youth claimant count analysis and updated ward level analysis of the claimant count to help identify areas which are being impacted the hardest by unemployment and a reliance on work-related benefits across Staffordshire & Stoke-on-Trent and where there may be a greater need for support. We also provide analysis of the latest business insolvency data to further understand how businesses are faring during the current economic climate.

We hope you find the Bulletin useful and welcome your comments and suggestions on further information you would like to see included in future editions. If you do have any feedback please send your comments to Darren Farmer, Economy & Skills Analyst at darren.farmer@staffordshire.gov.uk.

Stay Safe,

Darryl Eyers

Director for Economy, Infrastructure and Skills, Staffordshire County Council

Key messages from edition 50

Local Picture

This month we have seen a decrease in the Claimant Count which is encouraging given the ongoing challenging economic conditions and changes by the Department of Work and pensions introduced in May that are expected to increase the claimant count nationwide.
Although job vacancies have continued to decline, new job postings in Staffordshire are just above pre-pandemic levels meaning that there are job opportunities across Staffordshire for those that unfortunately find themselves out of work.
We will continue to support our residents into work and ensure that Staffordshire has the strong workforce it needs to grow the economy.
We also continue to support local businesses that face ongoing challenging conditions due to a wide range of factors including high interest rates and energy prices, increased commodity costs, increasing wage levels and lower consumer demand.
Looking at the local data in more detail, following increases in the claimant count since before the start of the year, the number of work-related benefit claimants in Staffordshire decreased by 165 this month to a total of 16,475 claimants. It is of note that Staffordshire had the highest percentage decrease this month in the West Midlands, with most other areas seeing an increase.
The claimant rate for Staffordshire has remained unchanged at 3.1% of the working age population. Staffordshire continues to have one of the lowest rates in the West Midlands, far lower than the average for the region of 5.8% which increased from 5.7%, and lower than the average for England of 4.4% which increased from 4.3%.
Turning to job vacancies, Staffordshire saw a 9% decrease in the number of available job vacancies between August and September to a total of 12,000. This is lower than the number of work-related benefit claimants. Stoke-on-Trent saw an 8% decrease in job vacancies to a total of 4,800 which is significantly lower than the number of claimants. Across the region in the last month there was also a 9% decrease, and nationally there was a 10% decrease in job vacancies.
Although we are seeing a slight decline in total vacancies, positively for those residents out of work, demand for labour remains comparatively high with the number of vacancies just above pre-pandemic levels.
Considering the top 20 job vacancy occupations in Stoke-on-Trent and Staffordshire, demand for roles in social care continue to remain high with ‘Care Workers and Home Carers’ being the most in demand occupations. The following occupations ‘Sales Related,’ ‘Cleaners & Domestics’ and ‘Large Goods Vehicle Drivers’ also have strong demand.
There continue to be reports of labour and skills shortages with not enough skilled workers to fill the vacant jobs.This has the potential to slow down economic growth and limit business survival unless the labour shortage and skills gap is quickly and effectively addressed. Clearly employment support organisations, skills providers and the Government’s Plan for Jobs including the Restart schemes and new Skills Bootcamps have a vital role in upskilling and reskilling jobseekers into areas of demand and preventing them becoming long-term unemployed. Government and business sectors have a key role in ensuring that jobs in areas of demand are attracting workers with good pay and terms and conditions to help prevent labour shortages.
It is clear there continues to be a high number of jobs available in the local economy and the need now is to ensure that there is a strong local labour pool with skilled workers able to fill these roles to support business recovery/survival and improve prosperity through better pay. The national and local support which is in place to support those that have been unfortunate enough to lose their jobs is vital in both reskilling and upskilling as well as enabling potential applicants to access the opportunities available. Encouraging those that have become economically inactive due to COVID will further help to address labour shortages and skills gaps.
Staffordshire County Council’s new Job Brokerage Service is designed to do exactly this by matching local people, employers, and training providers to fill jobs and provide people with the jobs and careers they need.
There are clear emerging opportunities for job creation in digital (including online retail and e-commerce) and the green economy (including retrofitting homes to improve energy efficiency, electric cars e.g., Jaguar Land Rover, and hydrogen e.g., JCB).
We will also look to build on our existing strengths including engineering and advanced manufacturing through the adoption of AI, Automation and Machine Learning, construction to achieve Government house building targets and build major new infrastructure projects such as the West Midlands Freight Interchange which will create 8,500 new jobs. Also advanced logistics with ecommerce creating continued demand and the recent announcement by Pets At Home in Stafford creating over 750 new jobs.

Local Initiatives

Staffordshire and Stoke-on-Trent businesses that have been turned down by other lenders can now apply to the Staffordshire and Stoke-on-Trent Business Loan Fund, supporting businesses to grow through affordable, unsecured loans from £10,000 to £50,000.
Applications for Staffordshire Means Back to Business Scheme business loans and grants remain open to small businesses in Staffordshire, including the Get Started and Grow Scheme.
Alongside this there is support available through the Growth Hub and we have our start-up schemes and the Staffordshire Jobs and Careers Service.
The Staffordshire Business and Enterprise Network (SBEN) continues to support local businesses with the transition to Net Zero.
To ensure residents have access to the support needed to find employment there are several employment and skills programmes which they can access including the Restart Scheme and skills bootcamps.
Stoke-On-Trent & Staffordshire Growth Hub have partnered with the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) to offer free 1-2-1 virtual business support sessions.
The Staffordshire County Council Workplace Health Service, working with public health and local health experts, offers businesses a comprehensive and funded package of online and in-person support.
Businesses across Staffordshire have the opportunity to build confidence and skill-up their staff for free with the government's Multiply scheme.
Businesses in Staffordshire can now apply for free energy assessments through the Green Solutions scheme.
A new programme designed to empower a new generation of thriving start-up businesses across Staffordshire has been launched and will be delivered by NextGen.
Apprenticeship funding is now available as part of wider grant for Stafford business.
Staffordshire County Council has launched the Succeed and Grow scheme, a programme that offers support to rural microbusinesses in Staffordshire Moorlands and East Staffordshire.
Staffordshire Moorlands District Council have released a final round of business grants to drive growth and innovation across the district.

National Context

Over the last month we have heard more about the plans and policies of the new Government in order to deliver it’s five missions.
We now await what will be announced in the Budget on the 30^th October, with local leaders expectant that the new Government will give local areas the money and powers they need to deliver for their residents, businesses and communities.
There was also the release of the Industrial Strategy Green Paper, ‘Invest 2023: the UK’s modern industrial strategy’ and the final industrial strategy will be published in spring 2025, alongside the multi-year spending review.

Cost of Living

UK inflation fell unexpectedly to 1.7 per cent in the year to September.
Inflation is now below the Bank of England's 2 per cent target, paving the way for interest rates to be cut further next month.
Real earnings continue to rise, but at a slower pace. Annual growth in employees' average regular earnings (excluding bonuses) in Great Britain was 4.9% in June to August 2024, and annual growth in total earnings (including bonuses) was 3.8%. Annual growth in real terms (adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH)) for regular pay was 1.9% in June to August 2024, and for total pay was 0.9%.

Economy

The UK returned to growth in August, a bounce back in construction and strong month for accountancy, manufacturers and retail businesses helped boost the economy by 0.2 per cent, after it failed to grow in the previous two months, but economic growth is weaker compared with the first half of the year.
Real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.2% in the three months to August 2024 compared with the three months to May 2024.

Business Conditions

It remains evidence that many businesses struggling due to a wide range of factors including high interest rates and energy prices, increased commodity costs, wage pressures, supply-chain constraints, lower consumer confidence and labour market challenges.
The latest results from Wave 118 of the Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS), which was live from 7 October to 20 October 2024 suggest that business conditions remain challenging.
Approximately one in seven (15%) trading businesses reported that their turnover had increased in September 2024 compared with August 2024, broadly stable with the previous month; in contrast, 24% reported that their turnover had decreased from August 2024, with 22% citing economic uncertainty as a challenge.
The latest business insolvencies data shows that in September 2024 there were a total of 1,801 company insolvencies in England and Wales, 8% lower than the number registered in the previous year (1,965 in September 2023), and 24% higher than the number registered three years previously: 1,453 in September 2021). The main concern around company and individual insolvencies are associated issues such as mental health and homelessness.

Labour Market

In summary, this month’s labour market figures show employment has increased but remains down on pre-pandemic levels, unemployment has decreased and is now below pre-pandemic levels, and economic inactivity has also decreased but remains above pre-pandemic levels. Job vacancies have seen a further decline which reflects the long-term trend but remain above pre-pandemic levels.
Estimates for payrolled employees in the UK decreased by 35,000 (negative 0.1%) between July and August 2024, but rose by 165,000 (0.5%) between August 2023 and August 2024. The early estimate of payrolled employees for September 2024 decreased by 15,000 (0.0%) on the month but increased by 113,000 (0.4%) on the year, to 30.3 million.
The UK employment rate (for people aged 16 to 64 years) was estimated at 75.0% in June to August 2024, above estimates of a year ago, and increased in the latest quarter.
The UK unemployment rate (for people aged 16 years and over) was estimated at 4.0% in June to August 2024, below estimates of a year ago, and decreased in the latest quarter.
The UK economic inactivity rate (for people aged 16 to 64 years) was estimated at 21.8% in June to August 2024, below estimates of a year ago, and decreased in the latest quarter.
The UK Claimant Count for September 2024 increased on the month and on the year, to 1.797 million.
The estimated number of vacancies in the UK decreased in July to September 2024, by 34,000 on the quarter to 841,000. Vacancies decreased on the quarter for the 27th consecutive period but are still above pre-pandemic levels.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the Government continues to provide further details on their policies and plans for the country, with much anticipation for the upcoming Budget and new Industrial Strategy to be published in spring 2025.
There was the welcomed news of UK inflation falling unexpectedly in September to the lowest rate in three-and-a-half years and below the Bank of England's 2 per cent target. It is expected that this could pave the way for interest rates to be cut further over the coming months and easing pressure on businesses. While wage levels continue to rise further easing cost of living pressures.
There was further positive news with the economy returning to growth, however the “broader picture” is one of a “slowing” economy in recent months, with many businesses 'pausing' hiring and investing ahead of Budget.
It is clear that for many businesses conditions remain challenging due to a wide range of factors and this has seen more businesses report a decline in their turnover.
There area signs of further cooling in labour demand, with job vacancies continuing to fall while unemployment is now back below pre-pandemic levels. However, employment levels are still being impacted by the rise in economic inactivity witnessed since the pandemic.
We need to continue to support those still struggling with the cost-of-living, residents to transition into work and viable businesses to survive and grow.By reducing the impact on our business base, we can see faster recovery and greater economic growth to the benefit of all.
In Staffordshire we have a confident, diverse, and robust economy, demonstrated by the improvement and recovery witnessed since the last lockdown due to Covid.As the ongoing global and national socio-economic challenges persist it remains vital that local partners work together to support local businesses and residents. We continue to deliver the Staffordshire Means Business Programme which has helped hundreds of Staffordshire businesses transition to new business models including diversification, digitisation and greenification to improve their viability and sustainability.
We continue to support residents into work and help businesses address ongoing labour shortages and skills gaps to aid survival and growth. A key part of this being the recently established Staffordshire Jobs and Careers Brokerage Service which is designed to match local people, employers, and training providers to fill jobs and provide people with the jobs and careers they need.
Alongside this skills provision has an important role to play in ensuring that local residents have the skills and training needed within the local economy to support increased growth, productivity, and prosperity. Reskilling and upskilling residents from declining sectors into priority growth areas of the economy such as digital, green, advanced manufacturing, advanced logistics, construction, and health and social care where they can access higher value better paid jobs will be key.