Economic bulletin

We are ambitious for the economy of Staffordshire, our businesses, and people. The impacts of global events continue to be felt on the local, national, and global economies and cannot be ignored. However, the county council, Government, and our partners, will continue to support Staffordshire’s residents and businesses through challenging times, ensuring we are well-placed to deliver a more resilient, more dynamic and more productive local economy.

Our ambitious Economic Strategy is our roadmap to delivering our ambitions for the Staffordshire economy, where our existing business are helped to grow, new businesses are established and thrive, our residents have the skills needed to access the jobs of the future and our towns across the county are supported to be places we can all be proud of.

An Employment and Skills Strategy 2023-2030 has been developed to support this and can be used to guide future employment and skills work programmes, to enable effective communication of Staffordshire’s shared employment and skills goals, and to inform the development of the Local Skills Improvement Plan (LSIP) for Stoke-on-Trent and Staffordshire.

A summary brochure of the Staffordshire Employment and Skills Strategy 2023-2030 has also been produced.

To effectively achieve our priorities and deliver our long-term vision for our economy we need robust ongoing analysis and evidence of the latest economic picture, ensuring that we are aware of any challenges that may arise. The monthly Economic Bulletin forms a key part of our live evidence base.

Latest edition

Latest Edition 55 (2.15 MB)

Welcome to the latest edition of the Staffordshire & Stoke-on-Trent Economic Bulletin produced by our Economy, Skills and Insight Teams, which provides the timeliest analysis of official Government data, national intelligence and local insights on the state of the local economy.

Alongside information on the Claimant Count and Job Vacancies that will be a part of every Bulletin, this month’s issue also provides more detailed youth claimant count analysis and updated ward level analysis of the claimant count to help identify areas which are being impacted the hardest by unemployment and a reliance on work-related benefits across Staffordshire & Stoke-on-Trent and where there may be a greater need for support. We also provide analysis of the latest business insolvency data to further understand how businesses are faring during the current economic climate.

We hope you find the Bulletin useful and welcome your comments and suggestions on further information you would like to see included in future editions.  If you do have any feedback please send your comments to Darren Farmer, Economy & Skills Analyst at darren.farmer@staffordshire.gov.uk.

Stay Safe,

Darryl Eyers

Director for Economy, Infrastructure and Skills, Staffordshire County Council

Key messages from edition 55

Local Picture

This month we have seen an increase in the Claimant Count which is reflective of the challenging economic conditions that businesses continue to operate in across the country. Changes by the Department of Work and Pensions introduced in May 2024 are also expected to increase the claimant count nationwide.

Job vacancies have increased this month, and new job postings in Staffordshire are above pre-pandemic levels. In contrast, job vacancies in the region and nationally have declined below pre-pandemic levels.

We will continue to support our residents into work and ensure that Staffordshire has the strong workforce it needs to grow the economy.

We also continue to support local businesses that face ongoing challenging conditions due to a wide range of factors including high interest rates and energy prices, increased commodity costs, increased wage levels and lower consumer demand.

Looking at the local data in more detail, following increases in the claimant count since before the start of the year, the number of work-related benefit claimants in Staffordshire increased by 825 claimants this month to a total of 16,180 claimants.

The claimant rate for Staffordshire has increased from 2.8% to 3.0% this month of the working age population. Staffordshire saw an increase of 5.4% this month, higher than the regional increase of 4.5% and the national increase of 5.1%. These increases will be reflective of the seasonal impact seen every year at this time, where temporary jobs created during the heightened customer demand period at Christmas have now ceased.
Staffordshire continues to have one of the lowest rates in the region, far lower than the average for the region 5.6% which increased from 5.4%, and lower than the average for England 4.3% which increased from 4.1% this month.

Turning to job vacancies, Staffordshire saw a 2% increase in the number of available job vacancies between January and February to a total of 13,000. This is lower than the number of work-related benefit claimants. Stoke-on-Trent saw a negligible decline in job vacancies to a total of 5,000 which is significantly lower than the number of claimants. Across the region in the last month there was a 1% increase, and nationally there was a modest 0.1% increase in the number of job vacancies.

Considering the top 20 job vacancy occupations in Staffordshire and Stoke-on-Trent, demand for roles in social care continue to remain high with ‘Care Workers & Home Carers’ being the most in demand occupations. The following occupations ‘Cleaners & Domestics,’ ‘Sales Related’ and ‘Teaching Assistants’ also have strong demand.

It is in these areas of the economy where job vacancies remain particularly high and where we are hearing reports of labour and skills shortages with a mismatch of workers or skills to fill vacant jobs.

This has the potential to slow down economic growth and limit business survival unless the labour shortage and skills gap is quickly and effectively addressed. Clearly employment support organisations, skills providers and the Government’s Plan for Jobs including the Connect to Work schemes and new Skills Bootcamps have a vital role in upskilling and reskilling jobseekers into areas of demand and preventing them becoming long-term unemployed. Government and business sectors have a key role in ensuring that jobs in areas of demand are attracting workers with good pay and terms and conditions to help prevent labour shortages.

There continues to be a high number of jobs available in the local economy and the need now is to ensure that there is a strong local labour pool with skilled workers able to fill these roles to support business recovery/survival and improve prosperity through better pay. The national and local support which is in place to support those that have been unfortunate enough to lose their jobs is vital in both reskilling and upskilling as well as enabling potential applicants to access the opportunities available. Encouraging those that have become economically inactive since COVID will further help to address labour shortages and skills gaps.

Staffordshire County Council’s dedicated Job Brokerage Service is designed to do exactly this by matching local people, employers, and training providers to fill jobs and provide people with the jobs and careers they need.

There are clear emerging opportunities for job creation in the digital economy (including online retail and e-commerce) and the green economy (including retrofitting homes to improve energy efficiency, electric cars e.g., Jaguar Land Rover, renewables, and hydrogen e.g., JCB).

We will also look to build on our existing strengths including engineering and advanced manufacturing through the adoption of AI, Automation and Machine Learning, construction to achieve Government house building targets and build major new infrastructure projects such as the West Midlands Freight Interchange which will create 8,500 new jobs. Also advanced logistics with ecommerce has continued demand with the announcement by Pets At Home in Stafford creating over 750 new jobs.

Local Initiatives

Staffordshire and Stoke-on-Trent businesses that have been turned down by other lenders can now apply to the Staffordshire and Stoke-on-Trent Business Loan Fund, supporting businesses to grow through affordable, unsecured loans from £10,000 to £50,000.

Applications for Staffordshire Means Back to Business Scheme business loans and grants remain open to small businesses in Staffordshire, including the Get Started and Grow Scheme.

Alongside this there is support available through the Growth Hub and we have our start-up schemes and the Staffordshire Jobs and Careers Service.

The Staffordshire Business and Enterprise Network (SBEN) continues to support local businesses with the transition to Net Zero.

To ensure residents have access to the support needed to find employment there are several employment and skills programmes which they can access including the Connect to Work and skills bootcamps.

Stoke-On-Trent & Staffordshire Growth Hub have partnered with the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) to offer free 1-2-1 virtual business support sessions.

The Staffordshire County Council Workplace Health Service, working with public health and local health experts, offers businesses a comprehensive and funded package of online and in-person support.

Leaders lobby for investment into A50/A500 Transport and Growth Corridor.

National Context

This month the Chancellor Rachel Reeves set out her plans for the UK economy during the Spring Statement in the House of Commons, with a focus on welfare, defence and public services. It comes as the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) - which monitors the government's spending plans - unveiled its latest economic forecasts showing a halving the growth estimate for 2025 from 2% to 1% but upgrading its longer-term growth estimates from 2026.

While we have also seen areas across the country submit their interim plans for Reorganisation and Devolution to Government, the resulting changes which will play a key part in how local areas support the Government’s growth agenda moving forwards.

Cost of Living

The UK’s inflation rate rose by 2.8 per cent last month, below the 3 per cent recorded in January, with the largest downward contribution coming from clothing. However, the rate remains above the Bank of England target of 2 per cent.

Annual growth in real terms, adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH), was 2.2% for regular pay and 2.1% for total pay in November 2024 to January 2025.

Economy

The Governor of the Bank of England has warned that tariffs and an ageing population posed major threats to the economy.

The UK economy shrank at the start of 2025 but had been expected to show further low growth. The Office for National Statistics said that output declined by 0.1 per cent during the month, mainly caused by a fall in the production sector, following the 0.4 per cent growth seen in December, after a growth figure of 0.1 per cent had been predicted by most economists.

Business Conditions

It remains evident that many businesses struggling due to a wide range of factors including high interest rates and energy prices, increased commodity costs, wage pressures, supply-chain constraints, lower consumer confidence and some labour market challenges.

There is also further evidence of business concerns regarding higher taxes and wage levels following the announcements in the recent Budget.

While there remain trade concerns with further emerging US policy, although it is recognised that the UK is less exposed to trade uncertainty than many other economies.

The latest results from Wave 128 of the Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS), which was live from 3rd to 16th March 2025 suggest that business conditions continue to remain challenging.

More than a quarter (26%) of trading businesses reported that their turnover had decreased in February, compared with the previous calendar month; this is down 2 percentage points from January, but in line with historical movements seen at this time of year.
Approximately one in seven (14%) trading businesses reported that they expect their turnover to decrease in April 2025, broadly stable with expectations for March; however, this is 4 percentage points higher than April 2024, suggesting businesses are less optimistic than they were at this time last year.

The latest business insolvencies data shows that in February 2025 there were a total of 1,884 company insolvencies in England and Wales, 11% lower than the number registered in the previous year (2,107 in February 2024), but 24% higher than the number registered three years previously: 1,518 in February 2022). The main concern around company and individual insolvencies are associated issues such as mental health and homelessness.

Labour Market

In summary, the labour market continues to look fairly flat overall, not surprising given the current economic outlook. Encouragingly, this month’s labour market figures show that economic inactivity has seen a further decline with resultant increases in both employment and unemployment. This is helping to create a larger pool of labour for businesses to access, at a time when the long-term decline in job vacancies has paused.

Estimates for payrolled employees in the UK increased by 9,000 (0.0%) between December 2024 and January 2025 and rose by 44,000 (0.1%) between January 2024 and January 2025.

Estimates for payrolled employees in the UK decreased by 14,000 (0.0%) between November and December 2024 but rose by 44,000 (0.1%) between December 2023 and December 2024.

The UK employment rate for people aged 16 to 64 years was estimated at 75.0% in November 2024 to January 2025. This is above estimates of a year ago, and up in the latest quarter.

The UK unemployment rate for people aged 16 years and over was estimated at 4.4% in November 2024 to January 2025. This is above estimates of a year ago, and up in the latest quarter.

The UK economic inactivity rate for people aged 16 to 64 years was estimated at 21.5% in November 2024 to January 2025. This is below estimates of a year ago, and down in the latest quarter.

The UK Claimant Count for February 2025 increased on the month and is up on the year, at 1.775 million.

The estimated number of vacancies in the UK in December 2024 to February 2025 was 816,000. Vacancies are broadly unchanged on the quarter (with early estimates suggesting a small increase of just 1,000) and are still above pre-pandemic levels.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered her Spring Statement with the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) halving the growth estimate for 2025 from 2% to 1% but upgrading its longer-term growth estimates from 2026. Areas across the country have also submitted their interim plans for Reorganisation and Devolution to Government.

The UK’s inflation rate rose by 2.8 per cent last month, below the 3 per cent recorded in January and remains above the Bank of England target of 2 per cent. We continue to see growth in real earnings, however inflation has reduced the real annual growth rate in the latest period and further heightening cost-of-living concerns for many.

The UK economy shrank in January and the Governor of the Bank of England has warned that tariffs and an ageing population posed major threats to the economy.

It remains evident that many businesses struggling due to a wide range of factors impacting turnover, while more businesses are concerned about the impact of the Budget and emerging global trade policies.

The labour market looks fairly flat overall, not surprising given the current economic outlook. Although it is encouraging to see economic inactivity continuing to fall and the long-term decline in job vacancies has paused, the need now is to support those seeking work to find employment and support growth.

We need to continue to support those still struggling with the cost-of-living, residents to transition into work and viable businesses to survive and grow. By reducing the impact on our business base, we can see faster recovery and greater economic growth to the benefit of all.

In Staffordshire we have a confident, diverse, and robust economy, demonstrated by the improvement and recovery witnessed since the last lockdown due to Covid. As the ongoing global and national socio-economic challenges persist it remains vital that local partners work together to support local businesses and residents. We continue to deliver the Staffordshire Means Business Programme which has helped hundreds of Staffordshire businesses transition to new business models including diversification, digitisation and greenification to improve their viability and sustainability.

We continue to support residents into work and help businesses address ongoing labour shortages and skills gaps to aid survival and growth. A key part of this being the recently established Staffordshire Jobs and Careers Brokerage Service which is designed to match local people, employers, and training providers to fill jobs and provide people with the jobs and careers they need.

Alongside this skills provision has an important role to play in ensuring that local residents have the skills and training needed within the local economy to support increased growth, productivity, and prosperity. Reskilling and upskilling residents from declining sectors into priority growth areas of the economy such as digital, green, advanced manufacturing, advanced logistics, construction, and health and social care where they can access higher value better paid jobs will be key.