Economic bulletin

We are ambitious for the economy of Staffordshire, our businesses, and people. The impacts of global events continue to be felt on the local, national, and global economies and cannot be ignored. However, the county council, Government, and our partners, will continue to support Staffordshire’s residents and businesses through challenging times, ensuring we are well-placed to deliver a more resilient, more dynamic and more productive local economy.

Our ambitious Economic Strategy is our roadmap to delivering our ambitions for the Staffordshire economy, where our existing business are helped to grow, new businesses are established and thrive, our residents have the skills needed to access the jobs of the future and our towns across the county are supported to be places we can all be proud of.

An Employment and Skills Strategy 2023-2030 has been developed to support this and can be used to guide future employment and skills work programmes, to enable effective communication of Staffordshire’s shared employment and skills goals, and to inform the development of the Local Skills Improvement Plan (LSIP) for Stoke-on-Trent and Staffordshire.

A summary brochure of the Staffordshire Employment and Skills Strategy 2023-2030 has also been produced.

To effectively achieve our priorities and deliver our long-term vision for our economy we need robust ongoing analysis and evidence of the latest economic picture, ensuring that we are aware of any challenges that may arise. The monthly Economic Bulletin forms a key part of our live evidence base.

Latest edition

Latest Edition 51 (1.95 MB)

Welcome to the latest edition of the Staffordshire & Stoke-on-Trent Economic Bulletin produced by our Economy, Skills and Insight Teams, which provides the timeliest analysis of official Government data, national intelligence and local insights on the state of the local economy.

Alongside information on the Claimant Count and Job Vacancies that will be a part of every Bulletin, this month’s issue also provides more detailed youth claimant count analysis and updated ward level analysis of the claimant count to help identify areas which are being impacted the hardest by unemployment and a reliance on work-related benefits across Staffordshire & Stoke-on-Trent and where there may be a greater need for support. We also provide analysis of the latest business insolvency data to further understand how businesses are faring during the current economic climate.

We hope you find the Bulletin useful and welcome your comments and suggestions on further information you would like to see included in future editions. If you do have any feedback please send your comments to Darren Farmer, Economy & Skills Analyst at darren.farmer@staffordshire.gov.uk.

Stay Safe,

Darryl Eyers

Director for Economy, Infrastructure and Skills, Staffordshire County Council

Key messages from edition 51

Local Picture

This month we have seen a small increase in the Claimant Count which is reflective of the ongoing challenging economic conditions and changes by the Department of Work and pensions introduced in May that are expected to increase the claimant count nationwide.
Although job vacancies have continued to decline, new job postings in Staffordshire are still above pre-pandemic levels meaning that there are job opportunities across Staffordshire for those that unfortunately find themselves out of work.
We will continue to support our residents into work and ensure that Staffordshire has the strong workforce it needs to grow the economy.
We also continue to support local businesses that face ongoing challenging conditions due to a wide range of factors including high interest rates and energy prices, increased commodity costs, increasing wage levels and lower consumer demand.
Looking at the local data in more detail, following increases in the claimant count since before the start of the year, the number of work-related benefit claimants in Staffordshire increased by 25 this month to a total of 16,415 claimants. It is of note that Staffordshire had the second smallest increase this month in the West Midlands, and a far lower increase than seen regionally and nationally.
The claimant rate for Staffordshire has remained unchanged at 3.1% of the working age population. Staffordshire continues to have one of the lowest rates in the West Midlands, far lower than the average for the region of 5.8% which remained unchanged, and lower than the average for England of 4.4% which increased from 4.3%.
Turning to job vacancies, Staffordshire saw a 1% increase in the number of available job vacancies between September and October to a total of 12,000. This is lower than the number of work-related benefit claimants. Stoke-on-Trent saw a 1% decrease in job vacancies to a total of 4,700 which is significantly lower than the number of claimants. Across the region in the last month there was also a 3% increase, and nationally there was no change in the number of job vacancies.
Considering the top 20 job vacancy occupations in Stoke-on-Trent and Staffordshire, demand for roles in social care continue to remain high with ‘Care Workers and Home Carers’ being the most in demand occupations. The following occupations ‘Sales Related,’ ‘Cleaners & Domestics’ and ‘Large Goods Vehicle Drivers’ also have strong demand.
There continue to be reports of labour and skills shortages with not enough skilled workers to fill the vacant jobs.This has the potential to slow down economic growth and limit business survival unless the labour shortage and skills gap is quickly and effectively addressed. Clearly employment support organisations, skills providers and the Government’s Plan for Jobs including the Restart schemes and new Skills Bootcamps have a vital role in upskilling and reskilling jobseekers into areas of demand and preventing them becoming long-term unemployed. Government and business sectors have a key role in ensuring that jobs in areas of demand are attracting workers with good pay and terms and conditions to help prevent labour shortages.
It is clear there continues to be a high number of jobs available in the local economy and the need now is to ensure that there is a strong local labour pool with skilled workers able to fill these roles to support business recovery/survival and improve prosperity through better pay. The national and local support which is in place to support those that have been unfortunate enough to lose their jobs is vital in both reskilling and upskilling as well as enabling potential applicants to access the opportunities available. Encouraging those that have become economically inactive since COVID will further help to address labour shortages and skills gaps.
Staffordshire County Council’s new Job Brokerage Service is designed to do exactly this by matching local people, employers, and training providers to fill jobs and provide people with the jobs and careers they need.
There are clear emerging opportunities for job creation in digital (including online retail and e-commerce) and the green economy (including retrofitting homes to improve energy efficiency, electric cars e.g., Jaguar Land Rover, and hydrogen e.g., JCB).
We will also look to build on our existing strengths including engineering and advanced manufacturing through the adoption of AI, Automation and Machine Learning, construction to achieve Government house building targets and build major new infrastructure projects such as the West Midlands Freight Interchange which will create 8,500 new jobs. Also advanced logistics with ecommerce creating continued demand and the recent announcement by Pets At Home in Stafford creating over 750 new jobs.

Local Initiatives

Staffordshire and Stoke-on-Trent businesses that have been turned down by other lenders can now apply to the Staffordshire and Stoke-on-Trent Business Loan Fund, supporting businesses to grow through affordable, unsecured loans from £10,000 to £50,000.
Applications for Staffordshire Means Back to Business Scheme business loans and grants remain open to small businesses in Staffordshire, including the Get Started and Grow Scheme.
Alongside this there is support available through the Growth Hub and we have our start-up schemes and the Staffordshire Jobs and Careers Service.
The Staffordshire Business and Enterprise Network (SBEN) continues to support local businesses with the transition to Net Zero.
To ensure residents have access to the support needed to find employment there are several employment and skills programmes which they can access including the Restart Scheme and skills bootcamps.
Stoke-On-Trent & Staffordshire Growth Hub have partnered with the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) to offer free 1-2-1 virtual business support sessions.
The Staffordshire County Council Workplace Health Service, working with public health and local health experts, offers businesses a comprehensive and funded package of online and in-person support.
Businesses across Staffordshire have the opportunity to build confidence and skill-up their staff for free with the government's Multiply scheme.
Businesses in Staffordshire can now apply for free energy assessments through the Green Solutions scheme.
A new programme designed to empower a new generation of thriving start-up businesses across Staffordshire has been launched and will be delivered by NextGen.
Apprenticeship funding is now available as part of wider grant for Stafford business.
Staffordshire County Council has launched the Succeed and Grow scheme, a programme that offers support to rural microbusinesses in Staffordshire Moorlands and East Staffordshire.

National Context

This month we have seen the Government pass two important milestones – 100 days in office and the Chancellor’s first Budget.
The Autumn Budget introduced record tax increases to bolster public finances and boost investment.
The soon to be published English Devolution White Paper will be the next important milestone in the government’s growth programme.

Cost of Living

UK inflation rose this month to 2.3 per cent, a six-month high, this was mainly driven by increasing household energy bills.
It means inflation is once again above the Bank of England's 2 per cent target, adding further pressure on the Bank of England, beyond that from the budget, to delay further interest rate cuts until next year.
Real earnings continue to rise, but at a slower pace. Annual growth in employees' average regular earnings excluding bonuses in Great Britain was 4.8% in July to September 2024, and annual growth in total earnings including bonuses was 4.3%. Annual growth in real terms, adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) for regular pay was 1.9% in July to September 2024, and for total pay was 1.4%.

Economy

The UK's economy slowed by more than expected between July and September, with uncertainty about the Budget being blamed for the weak growth. The economy grew by just 0.1 per cent over the period, and the Office for National Statistics said activity was subdued across most industries.

Business Conditions

It remains evident that many businesses struggling due to a wide range of factors including high interest rates and energy prices, increased commodity costs, wage pressures, supply-chain constraints, lower consumer confidence and labour market challenges. There is also evidence of business concerns regarding higher taxes and wage levels following the announcements in the recent Budget.
The latest results from Wave 120 of the Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS), which was live from 4^th to 17^th November 2024 suggest that business conditions continue to remain challenging.
Approximately one in six (16%) trading businesses reported that their turnover had increased in October 2024 compared with September 2024, broadly stable with the previous month; in contrast, 22% reported that their turnover had decreased from September 2024, with 23% citing economic uncertainty as a challenge.
The latest business insolvencies data shows that in October 2024 there were a total of 1,829 company insolvencies in England and Wales, 21% lower than the number registered in the previous year (2,317 in October 2023), and 30% higher than the number registered three years previously: 1,410 in October 2021). The main concern around company and individual insolvencies are associated issues such as mental health and homelessness.

Labour Market

In summary, this month’s labour market figures show the labour market is cooling and recruitment challenges have eased. Over the latest period employment increased but remains down on pre-pandemic levels, unemployment has increased and is now above pre-pandemic levels, and economic inactivity has decreased but remains above pre-pandemic levels. Job vacancies have seen a further decline which reflects the long-term trend but remain above pre-pandemic levels.
Estimates for payrolled employees in the UK decreased by 9,000 (0.0%) between August and September 2024 but rose by 136,000 (0.4%) between September 2023 and September 2024. The early estimate of payrolled employees for October 2024 decreased by 5,000 (0.0%) on the month but increased by 95,000 (0.3%) on the year, to 30.4 million.
The UK employment rate for people aged 16 to 64 years was estimated at 74.8% in July to September 2024. This is largely unchanged on a year ago, but up in the latest quarter.
The UK unemployment rate for people aged 16 years and over was estimated at 4.3% in July to September 2024. This is above estimates of a year ago, and up in the latest quarter.
The UK economic inactivity rate for people aged 16 to 64 years was estimated at 21.8% in July to September 2024. This is below estimates of a year ago, and down in the latest quarter.
The UK Claimant Count for October 2024 increased both on the month and on the year, to 1.806 million.
The estimated number of vacancies in the UK decreased in August to October 2024, by 35,000 on the quarter to 831,000. Vacancies decreased on the quarter for the 28th consecutive period but are still above pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic levels.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the Government has set out further details on their policies and plans for the country in the Budget, many of which will have a significant impact on the economy. We await the publication of the Devolution White Paper which will determine the role of local government in the Government’s growth plans.
UK inflation rose due to increased household bills and is once again above the Bank of England’s target and is likely to slow further interest rate cuts. This increase in inflation comes at a time when wage growth is slowing and may put pressure on some household budgets.
Uncertainty about the Budget contributed to a slowdown in the economy, with businesses limiting investment and households reducing spending.
It is clear that for many businesses conditions remain challenging due to a wide range of factors impacting turnover, while the Budget has increased concerns regarding taxation and payroll demands.
The labour market continues to cool, with recruitment challenges easing, we are seeing economic inactivity decline leading to increases in both employment and unemployment levels. However, youth worklessness and for those that are disabled remains a concern.
We need to continue to support those still struggling with the cost-of-living, residents to transition into work and viable businesses to survive and grow.By reducing the impact on our business base, we can see faster recovery and greater economic growth to the benefit of all.
In Staffordshire we have a confident, diverse, and robust economy, demonstrated by the improvement and recovery witnessed since the last lockdown due to Covid.As the ongoing global and national socio-economic challenges persist it remains vital that local partners work together to support local businesses and residents. We continue to deliver the Staffordshire Means Business Programme which has helped hundreds of Staffordshire businesses transition to new business models including diversification, digitisation and greenification to improve their viability and sustainability.
We continue to support residents into work and help businesses address ongoing labour shortages and skills gaps to aid survival and growth. A key part of this being the recently established Staffordshire Jobs and Careers Brokerage Service which is designed to match local people, employers, and training providers to fill jobs and provide people with the jobs and careers they need.

Alongside this skills provision has an important role to play in ensuring that local residents have the skills and training needed within the local economy to support increased growth, productivity, and prosperity. Reskilling and upskilling residents from declining sectors into priority growth areas of the economy such as digital, green, advanced manufacturing, advanced logistics, construction, and health and social care where they can access higher value better paid jobs will be key.